Seven Indicators That Move Markets: Forecasting Future Market Movements for Profitable Investments [精裝]

Prefacexi
Chapter 1.Market Indicators for a New Investment Era1
Who2
The Legendary Perfect Trade3
Patience, Persistence, and Probability4
Concrete, Public, and Forward-Looking5
A Market Can't Think, or Maybe It Can9
A Glimpse at the Structure of This Book10
A Suggestion about How to Use This Book11
Chapter 2.The Role of the Fed13
The Fed's Balancing Act14
Where the Government-Sponsored Enterprises Fit In15
How the Fed Works18
The Fed Is Irrelevant? Guess Again20
Two Basic Ideas22
Transfer Credit and Created Credit23
Chapter 3.Fed Funds Spreads Can Shed Light on Future Fed Actions29
Defining Fed Funds Futures30
Deriving the Market Consensus31
Tracking a Shifting Consensus34
Shifting from a Stable Outlook to Expectations of Tightening36
Tracking a Growing Consensus38
Finding the Probability of a Fed Policy Shift40
A Valuable Tool41
Chapter 4.Yield-Curve Shape Changes Foretell Economic Developments43
Flatter-Steeper45
Yield Curves As Indicators45
Accounting for Yield-Curve Shape47
Complicating Our Understanding of Yield-Curve Shape49
Supply-Demand Pressure Counts, Too51
Don't Forget This Is the Information Age53
Credit Supply-Credit Demand54
The Problem with the Treasury Yield Curve As Benchmark57
Chapter 5.TEDs, TAGs, and the Credit Story59
Pricing Credit in the Bond Market60
The Plot Thickens61
The Original TED Spread65
The Market Took a Longer Look at the TED69
Term TEDs Reflect Market Concerns70
TAG Spreads Tell the Same Story As Term TEDs73
Calculating the TAG Spread74
Relating TAGs and TEDs75
Chapter 6.Volatility--An Indicator of Market Potential79
Looking Back and Looking Forward81
Scaling Volatility Information to Your Investment Horizon86
A More Advanced Idea87
A Note on the Psychology of Volatility90
Volatility Can Help with Timing92
Why Heating Oil Is Relevant93
Developing a Sense of How Far Down Down Might Be99
Tying Stock Prices to Oil Prices100
What the Markets Suggest102
A Word of Caution103
Chapter 7.Futures Price Relationships Enrich the Story105
The Basis106
The Force of Arbitrage107
Commodity Spreads109
A Sense of History112
The Energy Markets Signal Similar Storage Messages114
Gauging the Profitability of Refining118
The Time to Act120
Chapter 8.Commodity Prices--The Next Link in the Chain123
The Trouble with Commodity Indexes123
Supply Shocks Can Blur Signals124
A Demand-Driven Index Seems a Better Forecaster126
Copper: Everyman's Economist128
A Look at the Futures Price Spreads130
The LME Markets Reinforce the Copper Story138
Oil Matters in Evaluating the Potential for Inflation138
The Trouble with Gold142
Chapter 9.Changing Rules and Noisy Markets145
Deregulating a Good Indicator146
The Effect of Deposit-Rate Deregulation on the Relationship between the Yield Curve and Economic Growth147
The Treasury Buyback Distorts a Useful Indicator148
The Traditional TED Was Not "Too Big to Fail"149
Markets Can Get Noisy151
Chapter 10.Putting the Market Indicators to Work161
A Framework for Predicting and Interpreting Economic Events161
Investing a Step at a Time164
The Yield Spread Provides Early Warning164
Reading the Exhibits168
Motivating the Use of Aaa Corporate Yields168
Industrial Commodity Prices Should Follow the Yield Curve170
Credit Spreads Provide Further Evidence170
Assumptions about Investing174
Market Indicators Prompt Asset Allocation Shifts175
The Conflict between Good Policy and Human Nature176
Indications of When to Shift Assets178
Volatility Can Help You Think about Turning Points179
Typical Consumer Behavior Argues for Strategic Discretion181
Housing Starts Tell a Similar Story181
A Framework, Not a Final Answer184
Glossary187
Index193